Influences on our planning

The Wellington Region is likely to continue to experience steady population growth. 164,000 additional residents are estimated over the next 30-years. This figure has been revised downwards since our previous assumptions in the 2021-31 Long Term Plan. The complex nature of population and demographic change creates a significant amount of uncertainty and flexibility.

Population growth is not expected to be evenly distributed across the region. Wairarapa and Lower Hutt are expected to experience the biggest population increases in the Wellington Region.

Over the next 10 years, our region is likely to become more culturally and ethnically diverse. Māori and Pacific populations are expected to grow, particularly in Porirua and Lower Hutt. The Māori population is projected to increase between 0.7 and 2.5 percent annually until 2043. About 60,000 Māori live in the region and make up 12 percent of the population. More than half (58 percent) are under 30 years of age compared to 38 percent of non – Māori and the number of young Māori is projected to rise over the next 20 years. The Pacific population is projected to grow to 2.5 percent between now and 2043. The population of people of Asian descent is also projected to grow in the region, with forecasts between 0.7 and 4.3 percent annually between now and 2043.

An increasingly aged demographic is expected, with rates of population growth being highest at age 50 and over. This continues a long-term trend. The share of the population aged over 70 is expected to rise from 10 percent to 15 percent over the next 30 years.

General growth, combined with an aging population, will likely place increased pressure on a wide range of services and resources. It also has the potential to put pressure on the natural environment and the health of our waterways.

The New Zealand economy is facing multiple challenges that contribute to an increasingly uncertain outlook. Mixed performance across the economy is forecast, particularly in the short term.

High interest rates have reduced domestic demand, and a weaker global economy has slowed the growth of New Zealand’s exports. Increases in the cost of living and the associated equity challenges are expected to continue. The period of lower growth drives further slowing in the labour market, with the unemployment rate expected to increase. Treasury forecasts the economic slowdown to persist through 2024.

From 2025, interest rates are expected to fall, and growth is expected to pick up, averaging 2.8 percent per year from 2026 onwards. Unemployment is also expected to trend downward from 2026. We have a level of certainty around the financial data for the next three years but less certainty beyond this point.

The region has a diverse economy made up of different industries. The most dominant are professional, scientific, and tech services, which make up 21.4 percent of the working population. Property operators, real estate services, and construction services are also strong in the region. Horticulture, agriculture, forestry, and fishing make up a smaller proportion of industry at 3.3 percent.

Working in partnership with mana whenua and engaging with Māori is important to Greater Wellington.

The Māori population in our region is growing and its expectations are changing. A Māori medium education combined with greater social awareness is shaping a new generation of Māori. Tino rangatiratanga and mana motuhake are drivers for iwi Māori who expect to see this reflected in how we work with them, and also in the work that is delivered with and for them.

There are significant opportunities for us to partner meaningfully with mana whenua in our environmental management, policies and decision-making processes. Te Tiriti gives effect to authentic partnership, enabled by funding, resourcing and representation.

Mana whenua of the region are redressing their historical grievances against the Crown with four of the six having settlement deeds in place.

Our climate has already changed and will continue to change. Climate change will have adverse effects on our natural environment, agricultural productivity, and our communities.

The region will continue to experience more frequent and intense rainfall events, and longer duration and more frequent drought events. The number of hot days will increase, and the number of frosts will decrease. There will be permanent sea level rise and more frequent and intense coastal flooding and erosion. Inland we will see more intense river flooding, and increased slips and landsides. The annual average temperature will rise. The region will also continue to be at risk from adverse natural events including earthquakes, tsunami and, increasingly, wildfires – all pose threats to life, property and livelihoods. These impacts will present significant challenges for our region.

The state of biodiversity in New Zealand and our region is in crisis. Pressures including introduced invasive species, changes in land, water and sea use, direct exploitation and harvesting, pollution as well as climate change are factors contributing to the worsening state of our environment.

It is important that we keep up to date with government proposals for reform and make sure we deliver on our vision and our existing commitments.

Local government has been facing the most significant period of legislative review and reform in 30 years. This significant programme of reform impacts governance structures, operational and financial capacity, roles, and responsibilities.

The policies agreed by the Government present further change and new directions. While timelines and processes are not yet clear, the Government’s initial policy priorities include:

• The repeal of the Natural and Built Environment Act and Spatial Planning Act reverting the country to the Resource Management Act (RMA).
• The passage of the Fast Track Approvals Bill (introduced 2024) as a totally separate approval regime to the RMA (and other legislation), indicating its long-term goals include making it easier to gain approval for infrastructure and development projects, prioritising approval over the current regional planning framework.
• The repeal of all legislation relating to water services entities (contained in the Water Services Entities Act 2022, Water Services Entities Amendment Act 2023, and Water Services Legislation Act 2023) also known as Three Waters.
• A number of amendments to the existing RMA and secondary legislation including the National Policy Statement for Freshwater  Management 2020 which will be reviewed and replaced.

For local government this evolving direction carries significant levels of uncertainty which we must prepare to navigate and respond to in ways that are best for our region.

Advances in technology will be ongoing, rapid, and unpredictable. This will likely change many aspects of the way we live and  communicate. New technology may help Greater Wellington improve the delivery of its services. Advances in technology outpace the policies which guide its design and use.

An overabundance of information, some accurate and some not, may make it hard for communities to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when they need it .

There is the expectation of increasing workforce diversity, and a wider and more inclusive perspective in decision-making. Widespread remote working may remain a permanent feature of the working environment. Research suggests many workers value working from home and are willing to change jobs or accept lower wages to continue in this way.